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As highlighted by North Macedonia’s Gender and Climate Change Action Plan, the effects of climate change, such as extreme weather events like floods, droughts and landslides, have the most negative impact on poor communities and those who closely depend on surrounding natural resources for their livelihoods. In a case of compounding inequalities, with women holding more low-paying jobs and making up the majority of unpaid family workers, they also end up being one of the most vulnerable populations to the effects of climate change. Socioeconomic inequality and other cultural factors are often directly related with the ability to cope with or mitigate the negative effects of climate change, which is why climate change has a greater negative impact on women.
According to the 2020 Human Development Report, social inequalities such as the unequal access to resources, increase planetary pressures leading to greater risks in terms of environmental challenges. The shocks which result from these risks cascades into further negative social impact, particularly affecting the most vulnerable.
Why women should be more involved in climate policy and action
Climate policies have largely been gender-neutral, but gender-disaggregated data on its socioeconomic impact increasingly supports the case for factoring in gender as a key consideration. One of the reasons is that the economic activities of many women relate to sectors directly affected by climate change or that can contribute to the mitigation of climate change, such as agriculture, waste selection, household energy efficiency and heating choices, and transport (women choose to commute by walking, cycling and using public transport more often than men). Climate change increases the vulnerability of women since they are already struggling with additional underlying inequalities in comparison to men. Women are also more involved in homeschooling which plays a substantial role in helping young people adopt healthy and environmentally responsible habits – a very important strategy for climate change mitigation. In general, women tend to invest more energy than men into community wellbeing as opposed to individual wellbeing.
By taking into account women’s knowledge, experience and needs, we can significantly increase the effectiveness of national climate policies and the efficiency of their implementation. For example, if women are more often the agents of change in their own households, policies seeking to subsidize household energy efficiency and renewable energy production should increasingly target women, which currently only account for one quarter of beneficiaries from such subsidies in North Macedonia. As development initiatives have demonstrated time and time again, when women benefit, the whole community benefits.
Contrary to the stereotype that physical labor is primarily the domain of men, women volounteered in large numbers to help clear the damage caused by the 2016 floods, which were some of the worst recorder in the country.
UNDP’s work on gender and climate in North Macedonia
UNDP is working on cross-sector fertilization regarding both of these issues, meaning that we help the decision-makers on gender equality issues to obtain more knowledge regarding climate change, while also offering guidance on gender equality to environmentalists. We created a map outlining all the steps we have taken to better understand the relationship between climate change and gender, and to brings this issue to the attention of all of the relevant stakeholders, such as through a series of trainings for public servant on the national and local level.
We also joined forces with our colleagues from Georgia to capture the personal experiences and issues of Macedonian citizens relevant to climate change, and used this vast pool of non-traditional data points to shape new policy documents on gender and climate change.
More broadly, we support municipalities in introducing gender-responsive budgeting, which lays the foundation for increasing the gender-responsiveness of all policies, including those on climate mitigation.
Micro narratives – a lens into the everyday stories of women and men
In December 2020, UNDP North Macedonia conducted a study on Gender and Climate Change that reflected major trends based on a collection of micro narratives and individual experiences. As a collaborative instrument, the cycle of the narrative research rests on collective intelligence and the participation of all stakeholders in all stages of the research process – from the development of the questions to the analysis of the results and the formulation of the policy recommendations. In collaboration with the UNDP Georgia Innovation Team, we conducted a micro narratives perception study to complement top-down interventions and collect data on the experiences of and issues facing ordinary people who have dealt with the effects of climate change first-hand.
“I was at home when the rain started pouring. Because I was close to the river, I noticed that the water level was rising and that the streets were starting to flood with water full of sand and sludge. It quickly got into the yards of all the houses down the street.” – woman from Tetovo, 50-64 years of age.
“Let me tell you about the ‘disappearance’ of the water that hasn’t happened to this degree in ages. Multiple families relied on the river for drinking and for household needs. Now that the river is drying out, people are forced to look for water elsewhere. The surrounding vegetation and wildlife are also in decline. It used to be a rich ecosystem with indigenous plant varieties, such as a rare sort of moss, but now it’s all drying out and the animals are leaving because there’s no longer enough food and water.” – woman from Gazi Baba, 50-64 years of age.
These are just a couple of the stories we collected from people who have had to deal with the consequences of climate change fist hand. Though individually anecdotal, together they make up a dataset that can help policymakers incorporate adequate responses to the identified needs into the climate policy agenda. Here are some of the most important findings, based on data collected from 1,223 respondents from across the country:
- Most climate change-related situations relate to disaster management.
- Half of climate change-related situations in the country are caused by rainfall/flooding.
- The most common response to a climate change-related situation is to plan to do something, act and think about the possible impacts.
- The perception on decision-making and budget management varies between men and women. Women report higher rates of joint decision-making than men (31% vs 23%), while men report higher rate of making decision themselves, compared to women (55% vs 36%). Women report higher rates of joint management than men (32% vs 23%), while men report higher rates of managing budgets themselves, compared to women (47% vs 29%). The ‘other’ category is very prominent and was reported by 29% of men and 26% of women.
- More women report taking actions to reduce greenhouse emissions than men, though both groups reported using similar strategies to reduce greenhouse emissions. Most of the respondents said that no intentional actions were taken by them. When actions were taken, the most common ones reported were home insulation and the use of more energy efficient home appliances.
Take a look at the differences and similarities between climate actions done by women and by men (in %). Women tend to reduce energy consumption in their homes, reduce waste or eat less meat, while the only bar where man have higher percentages is the one where no climate action is taken.
Climate change urges us to be proactive because reactivity does not work
We can agree that installing more air conditioners contributes to increasing air temperature and that buying bottled water in plastic containers increases waste, which in turn reduces water supply. However, deciding to act after the fact, rather than taking a proactive approach, often leaves us with limited options for lessening the consequences of climate change.
Therefore, whatever we do, we must take a step back and mitigate climate change in a smart and inclusive way, leaving no one behind. As vulnerable categories are especially affected by the repercussions of climate change, they must be included as important stakeholders in the decision making processes on how to address it. Likewise, the relationship between gender and climate change should not be overlooked. We must strive to increase the involvement of women and girls in the fight against climate change, not only because they often bear the brunt of its consequences but also because they are already acting as powerful agents of change on climate change mitigation. An inclusive decision-making process is the only just way forward!
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- The effect of global crisis on people and communities in North Macedonia
The conflict in Ukraine has produced an alarming number of cascading effects to the global economy already challenged by the impact of climate change, the Covid19 pandemic and a range of other interconnected uncertainties. This assessment was outlined in the first policy brief of the Global Crisis Response Group, which seeks to ensure a coordinated global response to the challenges of food security, energy and financing.
As the UN Development Agency in North Macedonia, we decided that we have a role to play in assessing the impact of the global crisis on people and communities in North Macedonia. To do so, UNDP organized a research assessment study that focused on the impact of the global crisis on the municipalities in the country, with a particular emphasis on their service delivery amid the crisis. We conducted that assessment by teaming up with two university professors, and the key findings can be accessed on this link.
In addition to this, UNDP in collaboration with PwC North Macedonia conducted a research study on the impact of the multidimensional crisis on the energy and agricultural sectors in North Macedonia (August-September 2022). As our Resident Representative, Mr. Armen Grigoryan states ‘UNDP has a particular interest in identifying the uncertainties of today, and how they impact citizens and communities in North Macedonia. This is the reason why we have pursued an impact assessment report on the impact of the global crisis on the energy and agriculture sectors in the country. We believe this report can give us a path forward, something that policymakers could follow, design activities around it, and encourage partners to follow’
- Generating actionable intelligence, key findings from our research
The study we jointly pursued aimed to provide an overview of the conflict in Ukraine and offer a path forward, by outlining potential solutions, innovations, and local policy recommendations for the public and the private sector. The study focused on the availability of food and energy, as well as the impact on the prices of primary commodities, such as gas, fuel, wheat, barley, and fertilizers – but also to review the socio-economic impact of the crisis with a particular emphasis on the most vulnerable communities.
As soon as the post-pandemic recovery began, it was cut short, as the war in Ukraine sent shockwaves across Europe including North Macedonia. It resulted in reduced accessibility of certain products (including food and energy), unpredictable price increase, rising long-term inflation pressure and increasing the risk of social vulnerability as well as slowing down the movements of goods and services, i.e. supply chain disruptions. “In responding to the current food and energy crisis, countries should not lose sight of their long-term goals (eg. economic stability, sustainability agenda). As we look to limit the severity of the short-term crises, we cannot jeopardize long term objectives, or at least we need to make sure we do not worsen them,” said Agnieszka Gajewska, PwC Global Government and Public Service Leader, addressing the audience on the 21st MSE Conference.
In order to contribute to the public discourse and policy making in our community, we pursued evidence-based study with the goal of gathering relevant insights from the private and the public sector. In this process, we developed a short questionnaire distributed to companies and institutions responsible for the agricultural sector or companies which have been impacted by the energy crisis, as well as energy regulators and relevant public institutions. The primary research confirmed the adverse impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the private and public sector in North Macedonia and demonstrated the need for enhancing support and introducing new measures to mitigate the effects of the conflict. The survey respondents argue that it is very important for the government to support the private sector on one hand, but also to focus on few very important infrastructure projects to diversify and ensure security of energy supply as well as to ensure the support for investments in the main food raw materials and ingredients.
- The energy sector
In the context of the energy crisis in North Macedonia, the study provides an analysis of the overall production mix and imports in the last few years. Energy import dependence in 2021 was well above 65%, which is an increase of over 20% in the last 15 years. The total domestic demand of natural gas and other fuel products is covered by imports. Natural gas is almost 100% imported from Russia. According to the 2021 report from the Energy and Water Services Regulatory Commission, the participation of coal power plants in 2021 is around 40%, while the share of natural gas thermal power plants (primarily TETO AD Skopje) was almost 29%, which is close to the share of the hydropower plants (27.5%) in the total annual energy production. The increase in the production of electricity from natural gas amplified the dependence on imports, i.e., North Macedonia imports more than 50% of its electricity (either as a finished product or as an input in the production of electricity). Import is expected to further increase in 2022, considering that additional quantities of coal for TEP Oslomej operations are imported, and fuel is imported for the operation of TEP Negotino. Except for natural gas, North Macedonia does not rely on energy imports from Russia.
Source: State Statistics Office, team analysis
It is evident that the conflict has significantly contributed to the rise of energy prices. Since the beginning of the conflict, prices continued to rise reaching 700-800 EUR/ MWh in July and August 2022. Both the prices of natural gas and other fuel products increased as a result of the conflict, i.e. an increase of 45% and 56% respectively, in the first 6 months of 2022.
The shortcomings of the domestic energy sector have been revealed: insufficient production capacities and their reliability, energy dependence, weak supply diversification, and long-term CAPEX underspending in the sector. The energy expert Aleksandar Dedinec, who contributed to the study, stated that one of the biggest changes that have been made to alleviate the energy crisis is the introduction of block tariffs for households. He also mentioned the reduction of the VAT for electricity and oil derivatives, amendments to the Rulebook on renewable sources for the installation of photovoltaic systems, the industry using the electricity from preferential producers, transfers of budget funds to the accounts of AD ESM and AD MEPSO for procurement of imported coal that will be used for the operation of TE Oslomej, and payment of the costs incurred by withdrawing electricity from the European system.
Some of the proposed short-term measures for mitigating the risks on the energy sector are to increase the domestic production of electricity, to simplify the procedures for the construction of photovoltaic systems, to provide subsidies for public enterprises to install photovoltaics, to adopt the amendments to the Law on Energy and the Law on Construction, to extend the measure by which households pay 5% instead of 18% VAT for electricity, thus protecting the most vulnerable, to run campaigns for the rational use of electricity in households and services sector, as well as to sign an interconnection agreement between natural gas operators in North Macedonia and Bulgaria, which will diversify the access to natural gas markets and decrease the dependence on the Russian supply. It is expected that the price of electricity will continue to rise and will depend mostly on the domestic hydro potential, the production from renewable energy sources at EU level, as well as on the winter weather conditions.
North Macedonia has set very ambitious climate targets ahead. Country’s perspective in turning to green energy should not be overlooked as an argument. Under the Paris Climate Agreement, the country is committed to reducing greenhouse gasses by 52 percent and since the country also has to shut down the thermal power plants that are coal fired by the end of the decade, that puts the country in a very difficult situation. Especially at a time when energy dependence also affects geopolitical shifts and realignments. Therefore, what makes a difference in positioning of the country regarding the energy policy is that large energy projects financed by the European Union or private companies are underway or already completed, and new ones are being announced. With the first solar plant Oslomej 1 in phase of testing, expected to be fully operational this winter, the Wind Park 1 in Bogdanci, already operational, and the two big projects on the way, Oslomej 2 and second wind park in Bogdanci, puts the country in a good position to pursue a green energy transition.
4. The agriculture sector
Given the importance of Russia and Ukraine to global markets for agricultural supply and food trade, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and policy responses by the world economic leaders, have significant and potentially long-lasting implications for producers and consumers. Prof. Dragi Dimitrievski, who was part of the agricultural sector team, stated that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has a vast indirect impact on the global agricultural sector, considering the fact that these two countries solely provide 27% of wheat, 23% of barley, 53% of sunflower oil and seeds and 14% of corn in global trade. Furthermore Russia, in 2020, accounts for more than 15% in global exports of fertilizers – being the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second largest supplier of potassium fertilizers, and the third largest supplier of phosphorus fertilizers. As he further stated, the impact for North Macedonia is even greater, given that in the Law on Agriculture and Rural Development, wheat and barley are recognized as strategic crops for our economy and that 70 to 90 thousand tons of the artificial fertilizers that are used in domestic agricultural production are produced in Ukraine and Russia.
Furthermore, the study reveals the fact that the cost of production inputs in June 2022 have increased by 25.8% compared to the same period last year. The biggest impact on the increase comes from: energy prices, which increased by 50.7%, and mineral fertilizers prices, which increased by 65.9%. In order to support domestic production of wheat, barley, and sunflower, and reduce the costs of fertilizers and fuel, the Government has provided financial aid and intervention measures, as defined in the Program for the Implementation of an Intervention Fund for Agriculture. Based on the survey, the current government measures are effective, and they are reducing the direct and indirect negative effects of the crisis. However, further improvement of the coordination and cooperation between the institutions would increase the efficiency and effectiveness in the process of planning and implementation of the support measures.
Figure 2: Agricultural input price indices (2015=100)
| VI 2021 | XII 2021 | VI 2022 | VI 2022 / XII 2021 | VI 2022 / VI 2021 | |
| Total input | 117.0 | 123.5 | 147.2 | 119.2 | 125.8 |
| Input 1 (funds currently spent in agriculture) | 117.3 | 123.9 | 148.5 | 119.9 | 126.6 |
| Energy, fuels, lubricants | 149.4 | 162.4 | 225.1 | 138.6 | 150.7 |
| Mineral fertilizers | 97.7 | 109.8 | 162.1 | 147.6 | 165.9 |
| Plant protection products | 102.3 | 102.3 | 107.1 | 103.0 | 104.7 |
| Animal feed | 103.3 | 107.4 | 112.6 | 104.8 | 109.0 |
Source SSO: Agricultural price indices, June 2022, Announcement
Based on the analysis and assessment performed Dragan Davitkov, Partner at PwC North Macedonia, concludes that “At a time of crisis of this scale, where we are facing the challenge of meeting the basic human needs of food and energy consumption, the focus should be shifted to alternative ways of procurement and alternative products. We need to strengthen public-private partnerships to provide joint solutions, at the same time protecting the most vulnerable by providing for their basic needs, at affordable prices.”
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UNDP North Macedonia and its AccLab team embarked on a journey to understand how using behavioral sciences and experiments (nudges) can help us tackle air pollution in the City of Skopje. This blog post consists of two parts.
- Behavioral science – one way towards a smarter policy action to reduce air pollution!
- Behavior change activities to reduce air pollution in Skopje
Behavioral science – one way towards a smarter policy action to reduce air pollution!
Behavioral economics the subject of human actions, behavior and decision-making. The field considers that human beings are “boundedly rational” and that irrationality is systematic and sometimes even predictable. Those predictable biases can lead to a great deal of trouble for both the individuals and the society as a whole.
The field of Behavioral economics combines insights from psychology, social science, and neuroscience with the aim to create a better understanding of human nature and in turn provide solutions based on a predictable rationale.
“By knowing how people think, we can make it easier for them to choose what is best for them, their families and society.”
– Richard Thaler –
Research profiles such as Nobel laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman believe that we tend to fall for short-term rewards; that we often take mental shortcuts, get stuck in old habits, and do what ”everyone else” does. Even though we actually know that in the longer run, if we acted differently, we would experience benefits both as individuals and as a society.
A commonly held assumption is that more knowledge and information will help change behavior. However, that is not always true. To be able to secure long-term, sustainable behavior we need to look at citizens’ capability, opportunity, and motivation for more sustainable action in each specific context.
Air pollution and behavioral challenges in Skopje
Air pollution in Skopje has long been a serious problem for the health of its citizens. The Western Balkans Regional Air Quality Management Report estimates that about 1,600 deaths occur every year due to diseases caused by ambient air pollution in North Macedonia. About 21% of this burden falls on the capital city.
UNDP’s survey conducted in January 2017 regarding the residential heating practices in all 17 municipalities in the Skopje Valley showed that 45% of the households in the City of Skopje are heated with firewood, 31% with electricity, and only 21% are connected to and use the central heating system.
The transition towards lower air polluting practices has many obstacles. On one hand, the population appears to be unable, as a result of the socioeconomic vulnerability, to adapt to less polluting behaviors. On the other hand, there are psychological barriers that prevent people from translating words into actions. To mention but a few:
- The adverse effects of climate change can often seem distant to us, both geographically and spatially. It is thus difficult for us to imagine and relate to the glaciers melting, polar bears facing extinction, or coral reefs dying. Our brain is programmed to value short-term rewards and it is psychologically easier for us to focus on things like control over our own income or management of family affairs.
- The discussion about air pollution very often boils down to what we need to give up, never about what we can gain. Our brain is programmed to be loss averse and not so keen to discover new things, often referred to as the status quo bias. This makes major lifestyle changes quite difficult for us, especially when it comes to habitual behaviors such as forsaking the cars and shifting to public transport. We do not like giving up things we have gotten used to, even when the benefits of shifting to something new outweigh our old habits.
- If climate- smart options are very difficult to achieve and require a lot of effort, our brains, which seek both physical and mental shortcuts, will choose the path of least resistance. We will choose the easy way, and not change behavior. Therefore, the less pollution prone alternative needs to become an easy solution for us. If there is no recycling station connected close to my home, I will most likely not recycle my waste.
Can nudging be one way to reduce air pollution?
In Behavioral economics, ”Nudging” was first introduced by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in the book Nudge (2008). The book challenges the notion of placing too much responsibility on individuals to make the right choice in complex situations and advocates for simplicity when deciding on the right thing. Nudging has the potential to affect pro-environmental behaviors by creating cost-effective and simple solutions that facilitate desirable behaviors. Nudging (among other things), has been instrumental in achieving the following:
- By changing the default option for people signing an energy contract, a recent study showed that about 70% of German households in a randomized-controlled trial opted for the purchase of green energy (Ebeling, F., & Lotz, S. 2015).
- In the UK, the Ministry of Environment introduced a subsidy for homeowners that chose to insulate their attics together with an offer for a cleaning service. By just informing about the cleaning service, the demand for the subsidy tripled. (Halpern, 2015).
- At Aalto University, Finland, a food-sharing group that facilitated the distribution of leftovers across campus has prevented more than 7,000 kilograms of food from being disposed of as waste . (United Nations Environment Programme and GRIDArendal, 2020)
Between 2020-2022, UNDP North Macedonia, in partnership with the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning and the City of Skopje, implemented the project Tackling Air Pollution in Skopje, financed by Sweden. Under this project, UNDP explored whether using behavioral nudges can help people engage in more pro-environmental behaviors that may in the long run help to reduce air pollution. The pilot investigated the potential to downscale the effects of air pollution not just in Skopje, but all over North Macedonia. More about the behavioral studies are better captured in the second blogpost named “Behavior change activities to reduce air pollution in Skopje“.
For more information contact: UNDP Project manager at aleksandra.dimova@undp.org, UNDP Accelaration Lab Head on Explaration at igor.izotov@undp.org and Behavior Change Consultant at ida@beteendelabbet.se